Ohio Trends Volume 1, Number 2 February 2000

Ohio’s population in 2015 is projected to be 12,060,620 according to the Ohio Department of Development (see Figure 1). In 1995 Ohio’s population was approximately 11,112,810 so from 1995 to 2015 Ohio is projected to experience an 8.5% change in population.

By 2025 it is projected that Ohio will be the 7th most populous state which is the same rank it had in 1995 (U.S. Census Bureau). The 8.5% change in population places it 49th out of the fifty states including the District of Columbia from 1995 to 2025.

The Fastest-Growing States

The fastest growing states from 1995 to 2025 are projected to be the following in order starting with the largest net increase in population: California, New Mexico, Hawaii, Arizona, Nevada, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Florida, and Texas. With the exceptions of Florida and Texas the fastest growing states are located in the West.

Assumptions as a Basis for Projections

Population projections are estimates of the population for future dates. Population projections mostly depend on assumptions about births, deaths, and migration. Migration is defined as the movement of individuals from state-to-state, abroad, or to another country. State net internal migration is the number of in-migrants minus the number of out-migrants.

Ohio is expected to gain 247,000 people through international migration (foreign-born persons who take residence in a state) between 1995 and 2025 but Ohio is expected to lose 758,000 people through net internal migration during the same time period.

Natural Population Changes

Assumptions about the natural change in population (number of births less the number of deaths) is one factor used in calculating population projections. During the 1995—2025 time period, Ohio is projected to have 4.4 million births and 3.6 million deaths. This would place Ohio 7th largest in births and 6th largest in deaths nationally.

Of all the age groups, the baby boom generation (those born between 1946 and 1964) as they reach retirement age and the elderly population (65 years old and over) are expected to experience the most rapid growth from 1995 to 2025. Nationally, the elderly population is expected to increase in all states and the District of Columbia. In Ohio the elderly population is expected to increase from 13.4% in 1995 to 19.6% in 2025 which will place it 28th nationally.

While the older population is increasing, the youth population (under 20 years old) is projected to decrease in Ohio from 28.4% in 1995 to 25.4% in 2025. Ohio is projected to have the 25th largest youth population nationally.

By 2015 the largest age group in Ohio is projected to be 20—24 year olds who for the most part are the children of the baby boomers. The size of the 20—24 year old group is very important to colleges and employers of new labor force entrants (Population Projections, March 1997). It is projected that by 2025 non-Hispanic whites will comprise 81.1% of Ohio’s population which is a decrease from 86.3% in 1995. Non-Hispanic African-Americans will comprise 13.9% of the state population in 2025 which is an increase of 11.1% from 1995. Persons of Hispanic origin, who may be of any race, are projected to increase from 1.5% of the state’s population in 1995 to 2.7% in 2025.

The Fastest-Growing Counties

A look at Ohio’s eighty-eight counties in terms of their projected percent population change from 1995 to 2015 reveals that twelve counties will experience a greater than 25% change (see Table 1). Those counties are as follows: Brown (26.3%), Butler (32.8%), Clinton (33.6%), Delaware (53.0%), Fairfield (33.2%), Highland (26.8%), Holmes (35.8%), Medina (31.2%), Morrow (26.5%), Noble (29.6%), Union (38.6%), and Warren (43.1%).

With the exceptions of Noble and Holmes counties the rest of the counties are in a major metropolitan area. The growth of these counties around a major urban county follows the trend of people wanting to live in areas that are neither densely nor sparsely populated. Another factor in the growth of these counties is the ever changing work patterns of many Ohioans which allows for the use of telecommuting and cross-regional commuting from suburb-to suburb so travel to a central business is not as necessary (American Demographics, April 1999).

In general the next tier of counties that will experience an increase in population (12.1% to 25%) are located either next to one of the fastest growing counties or they are located in the central, southern region of the state. The central, southern counties, Adams, Hocking, Jackson, Pike, Ross, and Vinton are rural, nonmetropolitan counties which are a part of the rural rebound phenomenon of the 1990s where people chose to move to rural, nonmetropolitan areas to live.

The Slowest-Growing Counties

Overall, 51 counties are projected to have a 5.1% or greater population change with 31 of those counties projected to change at least by 12.1%. Generally, the 19 counties with the slowest growth rate, 0%—5.0% are either counties in which a major city is located or those counties are located in the southeastern region of the state. The 18 counties that are projected to experience a net loss in population generally are rural and are located in the north central and southeastern regions of the state.

Assessing the Hispanic Population

Generally, the fastest growing states from 1995 to 2025 are located in the west. The census bureau’s state projections through 2025 include for the first time the projected population of non-Hispanic whites which allows for a clear picture of the Hispanic components in each state. In 2005 it is projected that the following states will have the largest proportion of Hispanics: New Mexico (41%), California (36%), Texas (31%), Arizona (24%), and Florida (18%).

Generally, the southern and Midwestern states are projected to have a greater share of the elderly population. The northeastern and Midwestern states are projected to decline in population as a part of the total national population. Even though Ohio is projected to retain its place as the 7th most populous state through 2025, Ohio’s projected percent of change is very low when compared to the other states.

Planning for Ohio’s Future

If seats in the House of Representatives were reapportioned according to the 2015 projections, Ohio could lose one seat along with other states in the northeast and Midwest (Forecast Magazine, Dec. 1996). This small percentage of change in Ohio’s demographic composition imposes important challenges for planners and public policy-makers. Social services, education, and health care are just a few areas that are affected by demographic changes in population. These projections could be used as one way to plan for Ohio’s future.

Table 1. Ohio’s Counties Ranked by 1995—2015 Projected Percent Population Change
State/County	1995	2015	Percent Change 1995-2015
Ohio	11,112,810	12,060,620	8.5%
Delaware	77, 480	118, 550	53.0%
Warren	128, 010	183, 290	43.1%
Union	35, 720	49, 530	38.6%
Holmes	35, 520	48, 260	35.8%
Clinton	37, 640	50, 310	33.6%
Fairfield	115, 460	153, 880	33.2%
Butler	314, 750	418, 040	32.8%
Medina	134, 020	175, 920	31.2%
Noble	11, 880	15, 400	29.6%
Highland	38, 730	49, 120	26.8%
Morrow	29, 840	37, 760	26.5%
Brown	38, 550	48, 720	26.3%
Madison	39, 560	48, 950	23.7%
Logan	44, 620	54, 970	23.1%
Hocking	27, 630	33, 910	22.7%
Clermont	162, 300	199,000	22.6%
Pickaway	51, 380	62, 870	22.3%
Geauga	83, 400	100,000	19.9%
Adams	27, 450	32, 680	19.0%
Licking	136, 050	160, 060	17.6%
Vinton	11, 900	14, 000	17.6%
Franklin	1, 004, 700	1, 179, 000	17.3%
Pike	26, 310	30, 880	17.3%
Ross	72, 600	84, 900	16.9%
Knox	50, 170	57, 830	15.2%
Preble	41, 800	47, 600	13.8%
Ashland	50, 240	56, 950	13.3%
Miami	96, 300	109, 200	13.3%
Wayne	104, 600	118, 600	13.3%
Jackson	31, 800	36, 000	13.2%
Lorain	281, 480	315, 630	12.1%
Morgan	14, 200	15, 900	11.9%
Meigs	23, 700	26, 500	11.8%
Greene	141, 700	158, 400	11.7%
Sandusky	63, 900	71, 400	11.7%
Auglaize	46, 800	52, 200	11.5%
Shelby	47, 100	52, 500	11.4%
Ashtabula	102, 400	113, 500	10.8%
Fayette	28, 300	31, 300	10.6%
Wood	116, 000	128, 200	10.5%
Huron	58, 700	64, 500	9.8%
Fulton	39, 900	43, 800	9.7%
Portage	146, 400	160, 600	9.6%
Perry	33, 320	36, 510	9.5%
Henry	29, 900	32, 600	9.0%
Champaign	37, 200	40, 200	8.0%
Putnam	35, 200	37, 800	7.3%
Carroll	27, 500	29, 400	6.9%
Mahoning	267, 900	284, 700	6.2%
Columbiana	109, 900	116, 700	6.1%
Summit	527, 600	557, 600	5.6%
Athens	60, 400	63, 400	4.9%
Montgomery	581, 300	607, 000	4.4%
Scioto	82, 300	85, 800	4.2%
Trumbull	231, 000	240, 800	4.2%
Williams	37, 600	39, 200	4.2%
Gallia	32, 000	33, 200	3.7%
Erie	77, 900	80, 700	3.5%
Defiance	40, 300	41, 600	3.2%
Hancock	68, 100	70, 200	3.0%
Hamilton	871, 200	896, 200	2.8%
Lake	218, 500	224, 700	2.8%
Ottawa	40, 200	41, 200	2.4%
Clark	148, 500	151, 800	2.2%
Mercer	39, 800	40, 600	2.0%
Stark	373, 400	379, 900	1.7%
Darke	53, 800	54, 400	1.1%
Tuscarawas	86, 100	86, 800	0.8%
Muskingum	82, 900	83, 100	0.2%
Lucas	459, 300	460, 000	0.15%
Lawrence	63, 300	63, 200	-0.15%
Cuyahoga	1, 395, 900	1, 392, 900	-0.2%
Guernsey	39, 900	39, 600	-0.75%
Coshocton	35, 900	35, 400	-1.3%
Paulding	20, 700	20, 400	-1.4%
Allen	108, 700	107, 000	-1.5%
Hardin	31, 400	30, 500	-2.8%
Richland	127, 100	121, 200	-4.6%
Van Wert	30, 200	28, 700	-4.9%
Jefferson	79, 800	74, 500	-6.6%
Crawford	47, 400	43, 900	-7.3%
Harrison	15, 900	14, 700	-7.5%
Wyandot	22, 400	20, 500	-8.4%
Marion	64, 200	58, 400	-9.0%
Washington	62, 400	56, 100	-10.0%
Belmont	69, 100	61, 900	-10.4%
Seneca	59, 100	51, 900	-12.1%
Monroe	15, 300	13, 100	-14.3%

Figure 1. Projected Percent Population Change 1995-2015

Data Center
The Ohio State University
Resource Development
248 Agricultural Administration Building
2120 Fyffe Road
Columbus, OH 43210
http://www.ag.ohio-state.edu/~dataunit

American Demographics, April 1999.
Forecast Magazine, Dec. 1996
Ohio Department of Development, Population Projections County Totals. March 1997.
U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports. Population Projections: States, 1995—2025, May 1997

Written by: Rosemary R. Gliem
Maps by: Lori Bolton
Reviewed by: Dr. Don Thomas,
Department of Human and Community Resource Development

Ohio Trends Newsletter

Volume 1, Number 2
February 2000